...the war for talent is not a short term phenomenon but the beginning of a true long-term change in the [labour] force
Over the last half of the 1990s, much was written and discussed about the so-called "war for talent" and the problems employers had in retaining and engaging skilled, young, more diverse workers. The recent economic downturn stopped this talk and in some cases reversed it. Instead of a concern for retention and engagement, the talk quickly turned to downsizing and separation. Was the experience of the latter half of the 1990s a true long-term trend or just a bump in road?
After careful study, it appears that the war for talent is not a short-term phenomenon but the beginning of a true long-term change in the labor force. This is because the factors that were driving the events in the last half of the 1990s are still present today and they're predicted to stay for another 15 years.
Indeed, there are storm clouds building on the horizon. The combination of rising job dissatisfaction and demographic trends that predict labor shortages, skill deficits and few knowledge workers has all the elements for a storm that will cause dramatic changes in the way that work is performed, who performs it and where, and the skill sets that will be needed.
This paper explores those demographic trends and countertrends. While it is impossible to predict with absolute certainty all the changes in the workforce, we can analyze the drivers of these trends and propose some plausible outcomes.
In addition, this paper explores how the management of people within organizations will change and how leaders can respond so that they can retain and engage their human capital.
